It's a dosage question: 2× decays at 44% of 3×'s rate and recovers from deep drawdowns far more easily, so the long-term-holding math is on a different planet. For swing-trading a bounce, SOXL has the firepower; for actually holding leveraged semis, most simulations push you to 2× or below. Set leverage to 3 and costs to 0.75% above — that's SOXL's parameters.

Is USD's index the same as the SOX?

No. USD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index, heavily concentrated in a few top names; SOXL tracks the more spread-out ICE Semiconductor Index (the former PHLX SOX). Concentration flatters bull runs and doubles single-stock accidents. This page approximates with SOXX data — check USD's actual top-10 holdings before buying.

Is there a 2× semiconductor ETF on the Taiwan exchange?

Not currently — Taiwan-listed leveraged ETFs cover the broad market and a few overseas indices (00631L, 00670L…); semiconductor exposure there is 1× only. For leveraged semis you need US-listed products (USD, SOXL) or your own futures/margin construction.

Is USD liquid enough? How does it compare to SOXL?

USD's fund size and volume run an order of magnitude below SOXL's, so bid-ask spreads are typically wider. For small long-term allocations it matters little; for size or frequent trading, work limit orders in tranches and count the spread as a real cost.

Are there other ways to get 2× semiconductor exposure?

You can lever a 1× semiconductor ETF on margin, or build it with futures/options — carrying the financing cost and liquidation risk yourself. For most people, 'a small SOXL slice next to a large 1× position' or 'USD with a capped allocation' is the manageable version — which is exactly what the column comparison above prices out.

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USD: Simulating a Long-Term Hold of 2× Semiconductors

Bullish on semis but scared off by SOXL's −90%? USD (ProShares Ultra Semiconductors) runs 2× on the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index. Semiconductors already swing at ~30% annual volatility, so 2× puts the path volatility in 3×-broad-market territory — this page runs the real parameters to show roughly where the leverage ceiling for semis sits.

Leveraged ETF Calculator

Compare how much of a leveraged ETF to hold versus its plain 1× index — five splits from all-leverage to all-index, rebalanced monthly, quarterly or yearly. See CAGR, drawdown and risk-adjusted return, volatility decay included.

Underlying index

Index

Expected return (CAGR)The 1× index's compound annual growth rate. The leveraged fund is built from this — you don't enter it directly.

VolatilityHow wildly the index's returns swing year to year. This is the engine of volatility decay: the higher it is, the more a 2×/3× fund bleeds in choppy markets.

Leverage & rebalancing

Leverage factorThe leverage of the risky fund, used in both the all-in hold and the blend. Real products offer 2× or 3×.

Rebalancing frequencyHow often each split is traded back to its target weights. Higher frequency tracks the target exposure more tightly and “buys low, sells high” more often, but in practice also means more trading costs and taxes (not modelled here).

The tool compares five fixed splits — 100/0, 75/25, 50/50, 25/75, 0/100 — of this leveraged fund and its plain 1× index, all rebalanced yearly.

Capital & horizon

Starting capital

Holding period

yrs

Fund costs

Expense ratioThe fund's annual fee, charged on the whole position. Leveraged ETFs typically run 0.9–1.0%, far above a plain index fund's ~0.05%.

Financing rateThe annual interest a leveraged fund pays to borrow its extra exposure. Charged on the borrowed (L−1)× portion, so it hits 3× harder than 2× and never touches 1×. Tracks short-term rates.

Strategy comparison

fund / 1×

100/0

2.0×

75/25

1.8×

50/50

1.5×

25/75

1.3×

0/100

1.0×

Median ending value

7.9M

6.0M

4.4M

3.0M

1.9M

CAGR

54.7%

50.7%

46.0%

40.4%

34.1%

Volatility

60.2%

53.0%

45.7%

38.1%

30.1%

Max drawdownMedian worst peak-to-trough fall along the simulated paths, at daily resolution. This is the loss you'd have to sit through — leverage multiplies it, rebalancing into cash trims it.

−69.4%

−63.5%

−56.5%

−49.0%

−40.4%

SharpeReturn per unit of volatility (CAGR ÷ volatility, risk-free rate 0). A rebalanced blend often scores higher than all-in leverage, because it sheds risk faster than return.

0.91

0.96

1.01

1.06

1.13

CalmarReturn per unit of max drawdown (CAGR ÷ max drawdown). A drawdown-based cousin of Sharpe — how much growth you earn for the worst fall you endure.

0.79

0.80

0.81

0.82

0.84

Unlucky (P10)

660K

668K

669K

614K

546K

Lucky (P90)

100.2M

57.4M

31.9M

15.8M

6.7M

Each column is a split between the 2× fund and its plain 1× index (leveraged % / index %), rebalanced yearly. Effective exposure = leveraged share × 2 + index share × 1 (shown under each split); 0/100 is the plain 1× index.

Median growth by strategy

Over 10 years, going 100% into the 2× SOXX — Semiconductors fund reaches a median 7.9M; a 50/50 split with the 1× index reaches 4.4M, and the plain 1× index 1.9M — every column rebalanced yearly.

The cost of leverage is drawdown: 100/0 typically falls 69.4% peak-to-trough, versus 56.5% for the 50/50 split.

Based on 500 simulated paths with daily-reset leverage. A simplified lognormal model, not a forecast: real markets have fatter tails, jumps, and shifting volatility, all of which hit leverage harder. Treat as rough odds, not promises.

What this ticker works out to

Under the prefilled assumptions, going 100% USD for 10 years lands at a median value of about 7.9M (≈54.7% annualised) — with a median max drawdown of −69.4% along the way. A 50/50 blend with the plain 1× index comes to about 4.4M with the drawdown cut to −56.5%; skipping leverage entirely (pure 1× index) gives about 1.9M at −40.4%.

Monte Carlo simulation seeded with the underlying index's 10-year CAGR and estimated volatility. That decade was a strong bull run — shave a few points off the return and look again.

How to read this result

Same underlying, but 2× carries just 44% of 3×'s decay (decay ∝ leverage²), and its drawdowns need far smaller rallies to recover — that's USD's real edge over SOXL. Mind the absolute numbers though: 30% volatility × 2 ≈ 60% path volatility, the same league as TQQQ — halving and halving again stays in the script. One often-missed detail: USD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index, not the ICE (ex-PHLX SOX) index behind SOXL — it's far more concentrated in the top names, so a handful of stocks drive most of the ride. The simulation here approximates with SOXX's 10-year data: right direction, different details.

Good fit: long-term semiconductor bulls who want more than 1× exposure and accept that 3× doesn't survive this volatility level — commonly a small USD slice next to a large 1× semiconductor or broad-market position.

Watch out: semiconductors are a cyclical industry — at 2×, a down-cycle still means a −70%-class drawdown (2022 was that league). The prefilled 34.1% CAGR is an AI-bull decade, especially optimistic for a cyclical.

Common questions

USD or SOXL?: It's a dosage question: 2× decays at 44% of 3×'s rate and recovers from deep drawdowns far more easily, so the long-term-holding math is on a different planet. For swing-trading a bounce, SOXL has the firepower; for actually holding leveraged semis, most simulations push you to 2× or below. Set leverage to 3 and costs to 0.75% above — that's SOXL's parameters.
Is USD's index the same as the SOX?: No. USD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index, heavily concentrated in a few top names; SOXL tracks the more spread-out ICE Semiconductor Index (the former PHLX SOX). Concentration flatters bull runs and doubles single-stock accidents. This page approximates with SOXX data — check USD's actual top-10 holdings before buying.
Is there a 2× semiconductor ETF on the Taiwan exchange?: Not currently — Taiwan-listed leveraged ETFs cover the broad market and a few overseas indices (00631L, 00670L…); semiconductor exposure there is 1× only. For leveraged semis you need US-listed products (USD, SOXL) or your own futures/margin construction.
Is USD liquid enough? How does it compare to SOXL?: USD's fund size and volume run an order of magnitude below SOXL's, so bid-ask spreads are typically wider. For small long-term allocations it matters little; for size or frequent trading, work limit orders in tranches and count the spread as a real cost.
Are there other ways to get 2× semiconductor exposure?: You can lever a 1× semiconductor ETF on margin, or build it with futures/options — carrying the financing cost and liquidation risk yourself. For most people, 'a small SOXL slice next to a large 1× position' or 'USD with a capped allocation' is the manageable version — which is exactly what the column comparison above prices out.

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How much of a leveraged ETF should you hold versus the plain index? Compare 100/0, 75/25, 50/50, 25/75 and 0/100 splits of a 2×/3× fund and its 1× index — all rebalanced yearly — on CAGR, max drawdown, Sharpe and Calmar.

Built by indigo.la.ringo · AppicLab · Last updated: June 28, 2026