Can I hold QQQ and SPY together, or is that double-counting?

It overlaps — almost every QQQ holding is also in the S&P 500, so holding both means 'overweighting tech on top of the broad market.' That's not wrong, but know you're buying a tilt, not real diversification.

Does QQQ always win long term?

It has for the last decade, but that was a golden era for tech. In tech-bust years (2000, 2022) QQQ loses much harder. Return and volatility come bundled — there is no version that only goes up.

Where does Taiwan's 0050 fit?

0050 plays a role closer to SPY — a broad, market-cap index. If you want QQQ-style growth tilt, the local equivalent would be a tech or semiconductor ETF, but the swings scale up with it.

← Back to the full Portfolio Allocation Optimizer

QQQ vs SPY: Should You Tilt to Tech Growth?

QQQ has crushed SPY over the last decade — and fallen harder in years like 2022. This page doesn't make you choose; it works out how much QQQ to add to push return as high as your stomach for volatility allows.

Portfolio Allocation Optimizer

Two assets, one question: how much in each? Set their return and volatility, and let the simulation find your optimal split.

Capital & horizon

Starting capital

Time horizon

yrs

Asset A

Preset

Expected return (CAGR)

Volatility

How wildly yearly returns swing around the expected return. A broad stock index sits around 15%; single sectors and leveraged products are far higher.

Asset B

Preset

Expected return (CAGR)

Volatility

How wildly yearly returns swing around the expected return. A broad stock index sits around 15%; single sectors and leveraged products are far higher.

Advanced

How the two move together

Correlation measures whether the two assets rise and fall together. The less they move in lockstep, the more a blend cuts risk — that's the whole point of diversification.

Rebalance yearlyEach year, sell the winner and top up the laggard to restore your target split. This is the standard assumption behind the efficient frontier and is what makes a blend’s lower risk durable. Turn it off to see buy-and-hold drift toward the higher-return asset.

Limit max drawdownCap how deep a peak-to-trough fall the recommended mix may risk. Each strategy then picks the best split that stays within the cap, pushing the answer toward the steadier asset. A cap looser than the calmest mix changes nothing.

Drawdown cap

Optimize for

Picks the split with the best return per unit of risk (CAGR ÷ volatility). Usually an interior blend, since diversification lowers risk faster than it lowers return.

This is a risk-adjusted ratio (the Sharpe ratio), NOT a win rate. It measures how much annual growth you get per unit of volatility you endure — higher means a more efficient trade-off. A blend often scores highest because diversification cuts volatility faster than it cuts return.

Optimal allocation

100% A / 0% B

A = QQQ — Nasdaq 100 · B = SPY — S&P 500

Median 1.7M · sim. CAGR 20.7% · volatility 19.0%

75–100% QQQ — Nasdaq 100 is near-optimal — the exact split barely matters here.

Unlucky (P10)

663K

Typical (P50)

1.7M

Lucky (P90)

4.3M

Max drawdown

Median worst peak-to-trough drop along the simulated paths for this mix — the deepest loss you'd typically endure before recovering.

−13.5%

Optimal mix

100% A

100% B

Median ending

1.7M

791K

Downside (P10)

663K

354K

Volatility

19.0%

16.0%

Max drawdown

−13.5%

−13.9%

Ending wealth by allocation

Median10–90% rangeOptimalNear-optimal

Based on 168000 simulated paths. A simplified lognormal model — not a forecast. Real markets have fatter tails and shifting correlations; treat these as rough odds, not promises.

What this scenario works out to

Under these assumptions, the best mix lands near 95% QQQ / 5% SPY. After 15 years that blend's median outcome is about 1.6M, with a rough-patch (10th-percentile) value near 661K.

These figures use this scenario's example returns and volatility — swap in your own holdings' numbers in the calculator above.

How to read this result

QQQ and SPY are highly correlated (their holdings overlap heavily), so blending them diversifies only a little — the real trade is 'how much extra volatility for how much extra return.' The optimiser uses the best risk-adjusted mix (Sharpe): if QQQ's excess return more than pays for its extra swings, the answer tilts to QQQ; if not, it tilts to SPY. In other words, it tells you whether the 'tilt to tech' bet is worth it.

Good fit: long-term investors who want a little growth tilt on top of the broad market, without betting the whole account on QQQ alone.

Watch out: QQQ's decade of high returns came from one tech bull market and may not repeat. Dial QQQ's expected return down a notch and the best mix shifts clearly toward SPY — don't drive by the rear-view mirror.

Common questions

Can I hold QQQ and SPY together, or is that double-counting?: It overlaps — almost every QQQ holding is also in the S&P 500, so holding both means 'overweighting tech on top of the broad market.' That's not wrong, but know you're buying a tilt, not real diversification.
Does QQQ always win long term?: It has for the last decade, but that was a golden era for tech. In tech-bust years (2000, 2022) QQQ loses much harder. Return and volatility come bundled — there is no version that only goes up.
Where does Taiwan's 0050 fit?: 0050 plays a role closer to SPY — a broad, market-cap index. If you want QQQ-style growth tilt, the local equivalent would be a tech or semiconductor ETF, but the swings scale up with it.

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How should you split capital between two assets? Set each one's CAGR and volatility, choose their correlation, and simulate thousands of paths to find the allocation that maximizes risk-adjusted return, median wealth, or downside protection.

Built by indigo.la.ringo · AppicLab · Last updated: June 25, 2026