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The 4% Rule Calculator
The 4% rule is the most cited rule of thumb in retirement planning: save 25× your annual spending, withdraw 4% a year. This scenario sets the withdrawal rate to 4% so you can see the target it implies — and pressure-test it.
FIRE Retirement Calculator
You can retire earlier than you think.
Enter a few numbers to see how many years until FIRE. Simpler than you think. All figures use real returns (inflation-adjusted).
Your Situation
Your Investing Strategy
Strategy preset
※ Returns are estimated 10-year annualised figures (2016–2026) based on publicly available market data, not exact historical performance. For illustrative purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investment return
%
Inflation rate
%
Your Retirement
Withdrawal rate
4%Stop earning age
60Your Projection
FIRE Target
1.2M
Years to FIRE
27.0 yrs
Funds last until
Indefinitely
Current progress6%
80K1.2M
At FIRE — how you'll get there
Total deposited
620K
Investment returns
580K
Monte Carlo Simulation
Retirement Asset Simulation
Generate 10 random return sequences in retirement using your parameters — see how different market luck shapes your outcome.
Investment return 7%Inflation rate 3%Real return 3.9%
Annual volatility (std. dev.)
15%VOO (S&P 500) historical annualised volatility is ~15%. A balanced stock/bond portfolio is ~10%; leveraged ETFs can reach 45–65%.
Max single-year loss
37%VOO worst single year: −37% in 2008 (financial crisis), −18% in 2022. 3× leveraged ETFs can lose 70%+ in a bad year.
8 / 10
paths lasted 30+ years (FIRE)
8 / 10
paths survived to age 100
Want the full picture?
Get a multi-scenario risk report — success rates across 7 market scenarios, as a PDF in your inbox.
See how small daily habits affect your FIRE date
Your savings and return rate are pre-filled — just add a daily expense to see the impact.
Faster Retirement Plan
See how relocating could help you reach financial independence sooner.
I currently live in
Cost of Living + Rent Index in 🇺🇸 New York: 100.0 (NYC = 100) · Find your city on Numbeo ↗
| City | Cost Index | Adj. Expenses / yr | Retire Earlier | Retire At |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🇺🇸 New YorkCurrent Plan United States | 100.0 | 48K | 0 yrs | 57.0 |
🇲🇾 Penang MalaysiaBest Best Retirement Destination Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) visa, English widely spoken, modern infrastructure, and one of Asia's lowest costs of living. | 22.3 | 11K | -20.0 yrs | 37.0 |
🇹🇭 Chiang Mai ThailandBest Best Retirement Destination Year-round warmth, ultra-low cost of living, excellent private hospitals, and a deeply welcoming culture for retirees. | 24.0 | 12K | -20.0 yrs | 37.0 |
🇲🇾 Kuala Lumpur MalaysiaBest Best Retirement Destination Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) visa, English widely spoken, modern infrastructure, and one of Asia's lowest costs of living. | 26.9 | 13K | -18.7 yrs | 38.3 |
🇲🇽 Mérida MexicoBest Best Retirement Destination Huge expat communities, close to the USA, diverse regions from beach towns to colonial cities, and world-class cuisine. | 30.1 | 14K | -17.3 yrs | 39.7 |
🇹🇭 Bangkok ThailandBest Best Retirement Destination Year-round warmth, ultra-low cost of living, excellent private hospitals, and a deeply welcoming culture for retirees. | 31.6 | 15K | -17.0 yrs | 40.0 |
🇬🇷 Thessaloniki GreeceBest Best Retirement Destination Mediterranean lifestyle, low cost of living, thriving expat communities on islands like Corfu, and affordable modern healthcare. | 35.9 | 17K | -15.3 yrs | 41.7 |
🇲🇽 Mexico City MexicoBest Best Retirement Destination Huge expat communities, close to the USA, diverse regions from beach towns to colonial cities, and world-class cuisine. | 37.9 | 18K | -15.0 yrs | 42.0 |
🇪🇸 Alicante SpainBest Best Retirement Destination Mediterranean sun, advanced public healthcare, and a vibrant social life — especially affordable outside Madrid and Barcelona. | 38.1 | 18K | -15.0 yrs | 42.0 |
🇵🇦 Panama City PanamaBest Best Retirement Destination USD economy, generous Pensionado program (20–50% discounts for retirees), modern infrastructure, and diverse climates from city to mountain. | 38.4 | 18K | -14.8 yrs | 42.2 |
🇨🇷 San José Costa RicaBest Best Retirement Destination "Pura Vida" lifestyle, stable democracy, lush nature, and excellent private healthcare at a fraction of US costs. | 39.3 | 19K | -14.1 yrs | 42.9 |
🇵🇹 Porto PortugalBest Best Retirement Destination Safe, sunny, and affordable. NHR tax benefits for foreign income, warm Atlantic coast, and a welcoming expat scene. | 40.5 | 19K | -14.0 yrs | 43.0 |
🇬🇷 Athens GreeceBest Best Retirement Destination Mediterranean lifestyle, low cost of living, thriving expat communities on islands like Corfu, and affordable modern healthcare. | 40.2 | 19K | -14.0 yrs | 43.0 |
🇪🇸 Tenerife SpainBest Best Retirement Destination Mediterranean sun, advanced public healthcare, and a vibrant social life — especially affordable outside Madrid and Barcelona. | 39.6 | 19K | -14.0 yrs | 43.0 |
🇮🇹 Naples ItalyBest Best Retirement Destination La dolce vita — rich culture, exceptional food & wine, and special flat-tax regimes for retirees relocating to smaller towns. | 43.9 | 21K | -13.0 yrs | 44.0 |
🇫🇷 Montpellier FranceBest Best Retirement Destination World-class universal healthcare, exceptional quality of life, and far more affordable in smaller cities like Montpellier. | 46.1 | 22K | -12.0 yrs | 45.0 |
🇵🇹 Lisbon PortugalBest Best Retirement Destination Safe, sunny, and affordable. NHR tax benefits for foreign income, warm Atlantic coast, and a welcoming expat scene. | 47.2 | 23K | -12.0 yrs | 45.0 |
🇮🇹 Rome ItalyBest Best Retirement Destination La dolce vita — rich culture, exceptional food & wine, and special flat-tax regimes for retirees relocating to smaller towns. | 50.7 | 24K | -11.0 yrs | 46.0 |
🇮🇹 Florence ItalyBest Best Retirement Destination La dolce vita — rich culture, exceptional food & wine, and special flat-tax regimes for retirees relocating to smaller towns. | 52.3 | 25K | -10.5 yrs | 46.5 |
🇫🇷 Paris FranceBest Best Retirement Destination World-class universal healthcare, exceptional quality of life, and far more affordable in smaller cities like Montpellier. | 62.9 | 30K | -8.0 yrs | 49.0 |
Based on Numbeo 2026 Cost of Living + Rent Index. Assumes expenses scale proportionally with cost of living. For illustrative purposes only. · Best rankings: International Living ↗
What this scenario works out to
In this example setup, the FIRE target comes to about $1,200,000. At this savings rate you could reach it around age 57. Stopping work at 60, the money comfortably outlasts age 95.
These figures use this scenario’s example starting numbers — adjust the calculator above for your own situation.
Understanding the 4% rule result
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study, which found that a 4% initial withdrawal (rising with inflation) survived most historical 30-year retirements with a stock/bond mix. It is a starting point, not a guarantee. For retirements longer than 30 years — common with early retirement — many planners drop to 3.25–3.5%. Use the withdrawal-rate slider above to see how sensitive your target is: lowering it raises the nest egg you need, but buys real safety.
Who it fits: anyone wanting a quick, defensible target — 25× spending — as a planning anchor. It's a sound starting point for a roughly 30-year retirement with a stock-heavy portfolio.
Watch out for: treating it as a guarantee. It was modelled on 30-year horizons and past markets; for early retirements lasting 40+ years, drop to 3.25–3.5% and keep flexibility to trim spending in bad years.
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Common questions
- What is the 4% rule?
- A guideline that you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year, and likely not run out over a 30-year retirement.
- How much do I need under the 4% rule?
- 25× your annual spending. Spend 40,000 a year and you target a 1,000,000 portfolio; the multiple is just the inverse of 4%.
- Is the 4% rule still safe?
- It is debated. It held up historically for 30 years, but low yields and long early-retirement horizons lead many to use 3.25–3.5% for extra margin.
Further Reading
FIRE Calculator Guide: How to Calculate Financial Independence and Retire Early
How do you calculate financial freedom? 3 steps to break down the FIRE movement + a super useful retirement calculator
Read the full article☕
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Calculate your FIRE number and retirement date using the 4% rule. Free, no login — enter savings, expenses, and return rate for instant results.
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